Munich Re Programme Academic Papers

The following is a list of academic papers that arose in part or full as a result of research conducted under the Munich Re programme, 2008-2013.

Frigg, Smith and Stainforth (2013) The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09Philosophy of Science, 80 (5), pp.886-897.

Millner, Calel, Stainforth and MacKerron (2013) Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?Climatic Change, 116:427–436.

Lopez, Smith and Suckling (2013) Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision supportClimatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y.

Imbers, Lopez, Huntingford and Allen (2013) Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical modelsJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (8), 3192–3199. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50296.

Millner, Dietz and Heal (2013) 'Scientific ambiguity and climate policy', Environmental and Resource Economics, Volume 55, Issue 1, pp 21-46.

Daron and Stainforth (2013) On predicting climate under climate changeEnvironmental Research Letters, 8 (034021).

Calel, Stainforth and Dietz (2013) Tall tales and Fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warmingClimatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0911-4.

Stainforth, Chapman and Watkins (2013) Mapping climate change in European temperature distributionsEnvironmental Research Letters, 8 (034031).

Imbers, Lopez, Huntingford and Allen (2013) Sensitivity of climate change detection and attribution to the characterization of internal climate variabilityJournal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00622.1.

Surminski (2013) Private-sector adaptation to climate riskNature Climate Change, 3, 943–945.

Suckling and Smith (2013) An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate modelsJournal of Climate, 26 (23): 9334-9347. [TP19]

Du and Smith (2014) Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation Part I: The Perfect Model ScenarioJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-032.1.

Du and Smith (2014) Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation Part II: Assimilation with Imperfect ModelsJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-033.1.

Frigg, Bradley, Du and Smith (2013) Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of his ApprenticesPhilosophy of Science, 81 (1), pp. 31-59. [TP17]

Surminski and Oramas-Dorta (2014) Flood insurance schemes and climate adaptation in developing countries, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.10.005.

Surminski and Williamson  (2014) Policy indexes as tools for decision makers - the case of climate policy, Global Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 3, pp.275-285.

Daron and Stainforth (2014) 'Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate', Climate Risk Management (accepted, Jan 14).

Frigg, Bradley, Machete and Smith (2013) 'Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill', in Andersen, H., Dieks, D., Wheeler, G., Gonzalez, W. and Uebel, T. (ed.), New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Berlin and New York: Springer, Vol.4, 479-491. 

Smith and Petersen (2014) Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy, in M. Boumans, G. Hon and A.C. Petersen (eds.), Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto, pp. 137–156.