Leonard A. Smith Publications

    

    Papers and chapters

Book reviews, encyclopaedia entries and Lorenz obituary

Encyclopaedia Entries and Technical Reports

Elliott, J., M. Glotter, N. Best, K. Boote, J. Jones, J. Hatfield, C. Rozenweig, L.A. Smith and I. Foster (2013) Predicting Agricultural Impacts of Large-scale Drought: 2012 and the Case for Better Modeling, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 131. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 111.

Smith, L.A. (2002) Predictability and Chaos, in J. Holton, J. Pyle and J. Curry (eds.), Encyclopaedia of Atmospheric Sciences, 1777-1785. Academic Press.

Smith, L.A. and K. Judd (2002) OCIAM Report for IG Index: On Identifying Skilful Clients and Vulnerable Markets.

Roulston, M.S., C. Ziehmann and L.A. Smith (2001) A Forecast Reliability Index from Ensembles: A Comparison of Methods. Technical Report prepared for Deutscher Wetterdienst.

Smith, L.A., Roulston, M. and von Hardenburg, J. (2001) End to End Ensemble Forecasting: Towards Evaluating the Economic Value of an Ensemble Prediction System, Technical Memorandum 336 29 pp. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, UK.

Smith, L.A. (1997) Noise Reduction on Multi-probe Data Streams. OCIAM Tech Rep 97-137-1.

Smith, L.A. (1996) On Nonlinearity in the Dynamics of Grid Frequency and its Impacts on Plant Dynamics, OCIAM Tech Report 96-137-1. Parts I and II. (for Nuclear Electric).

Gilmour, I. and L.A. Smith (1996) A Brief Overview of the Seminar on Atmospheric Predictability. Newton Institute, Nov 1996. 

In the media

Contributions to the Popular Press

Invited essay on 'Climate Models as Economic Guides: Scientific Challenge or Quixotic Quest?' (Issues, Spring 2015). Issues in Science and Technology, National Academy of Science. Summer 2015.

'Climate Change by Numbers' Consultant for the BBC Four documentary, broadcast 2 March 2015.

'Trading on climate surprises' Pauline Barrieu and Leonard Smith in Trading Risk, 22, 9, April 2010.

'Making Room for Uncertainty' Leonard Smith in a two-page interview by Fred Pearce of the New Scientist, 3 December 2008.

Obituary of Professor Edward Lorenz, The Observer, 26 April 2008.
'Unproven Theories Have Value', The Times, letters to the Editor, 30 November 2007.

Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk, Mary Altalo and Leonard Smith in Environmental Finance, October 2004, 48-49 ISSN 1468-8573.

'Predicting the Unpredictable' guest on BBC Radio 4 The Material World, 11 April 2002.

Weather Watch in EPSRC Newsline Mathematics, July 2001.

'Feeding Frenzy is short of juice' in the Times Higher Education Supplement, 18 August 2000. A review of The Predictors by Thomas A. Bass.

'Rough Survey of how ticks all add up' in the Times Higher Education Supplement textbook guide, 26 May 2000. A review of Econophysics by R. Mantegna and H.E. Stanley.

Other Media Presence

Leonard Smith has been quoted in news stories in Nature, New Scientist, BBC News, BBC Radio 4, Financial Times, The Daily Telegraph. His research program has twice been the cover feature of the LSE Magazine.

Books and thesis

A Very Short Introduction to Chaos (2007) Oxford University Press. A member of the OUP 'A Very Short Introduction' series. Translated into Arabic, German, Italian, Spanish, Turkish, Vietnamese and Persian (Chinese in preparation). 12th Printing.

Modern Analysis of Time Series with Applications to Real Data. Oxford University Press. L.A. Smith & H. Du. Expected 2018.

Lacunarity and Chaos in Nature (1987) PhD Thesis, 263, Columbia University in the City of New York. Download pdf. 

Acknowledged supporting role

Leonard Smith made significant (acknowledged) contributions to the following works:

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change (2016) National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Report. The National Academies Press, Washington DC. DOI: https//doi.org/10.17226/21852.

Climate Extremes: Recent Trends with Implications for National Security (2012) by Michael McElroy and James Baker.

A blueprint for a safer planet: how to manage climate change and create a new era of progress and prosperity (2009) by Nicolas Stern. Bodley Head, London, UK. ISBN 9781847920379.

The Stern Review report on The Economics of Climate Change (2007) by Nicolas Stern. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. ISBN 9780521700801.

The Rough Guide to Climate Change (2006) by Robert Henson. Rough Guides Ltd, London. ISBN 978-1843537113 1843537117.

THORPEX International Science Plan (2004) by Melvyn Shapiro and Alan Thorpe, World Meteorological Organisation

Supervised theses

Sienkiewicz, E. (2017) Internal consistency as a tool in analysis and application of non-linear simulation. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science.

Wheatcroft, E. (2016) Improving predictability of the future by grasping probability less tightly. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy

Maynard, T. (2016) Extreme insurance and the dynamics of risk. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy

Higgins, S. (2015) Limitations to seasonal weather prediction and crop forecasting due to nonlinearity and model inadequacy. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy

Jarman, A. (2014) On the provision, reliability, and use of hurricane forecasts on various timescales. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy

Binter, R. (2012) Applied Probabilistic Forecasting. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy 

Tredger, E. (2009) On the Evaluation of Uncertainties in Climate Models. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy

Du, H. (2009) Combining statistical methods with dynamical insight to improve nonlinear estimation. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy 

Andrianova, A. (2009) Simulation of temperature time-series on long time scales with application to pricing weather derivatives. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy  

Machete, R. (2008) Model inadequacies in a simple physical system. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.

Cuellar, M. (2007) Perspectives and advances in parameter estimations of nonlinear models. PhD thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science. Download a copy

Clarke, L. (2004) Nonlinear time series analysis of data streams. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.

Guerrero, A. (2002) Scaling exponents of deterministic and stochastic systems. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.

Orrell, D. (2001) Modelling nonlinear dynamical systems: chaos, uncertainty, and error. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.

McSharry, P. (1999) Innovations in consistent nonlinear deterministic prediction. PhD thesis, University of Oxford

Gilmour, I. (1999) Nonlinear model evaluation: ɩ-shadowing, probabilistic prediction and weather forecasting. PhD thesis, University of Oxford. Download a copy.

Hansen, J. (1998) Adaptive observations in spatially-extended nonlinear dynamical systems. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.

Ellepola, J. (1997) Nucleate boiling: nonlinear spatio-temporal variations in wall temperature. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.

Allen, M. (1992) Interactions between the atmosphere and oceans on time scales of weeks to years. PhD thesis, University of Oxford.