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Leonard A Smith Publications

Papers and chapters 

[99] Smith, L.A., Du, H., Suckling, E.B. and Niehoerster, F. ‘Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts|’, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (in press).

[98] Bradley, S., Frigg, R., Du, H. and Smith, L.A. 'Model error and ensemble forecasting: a cautionary tale|', in Guichun C. Guo and Chuang Liu (ed.) Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science, Singapore: World Scientific 2014, 58-66.

[97] Smith, L.A. and Petersen, A.C. (2014) 'Variations on reliability: connecting climate predictions to climate policy|', in Boumans, M., Hon, G. and Petersen, A.C. (ed.) Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice, London: Pickering & Chatto.

[96] Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2014) 'Laplace's Demon and the adventures of his apprentices|', Philosophy of Science, 81 (1) (January 2014), pp. 31-59.

[95] Lopez, A., Smith, L.A. and Suckling, E.B. (2013) 'Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support|', Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y. Supplementary material|.

[94] Suckling, E.B. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models|', Journal of Climate, 26 (23): 9334-9347. Supplementary material|.

[93] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'Pseudo-orbit data assimilation part I: the perfect model scenario|', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0.32.1

[92] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'Pseudo-orbit data assimilation part II: assimilation with imperfect models|', Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-033.1. 

[91] Frigg, R., Bradley, S., Machete, R.L. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill|', in Anderson, H., Dieks, D., Wheeler, G., Gonzalez, W. and Uebel, T. (ed.) New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Berlin and New York: Springer, Vol. 4, 479-491.

[90] Frigg, R., Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (2013) 'The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09|', Philosophy of Science, 80 (5), pp. 886-897.

[89] Glendinning, P. and Smith, L.A. (2013) 'Lacunarity and period-doubling|', Dynamical Systems, 28 (1), 111-121. 

[88] Smith, L.A. and Stainforth, D.A. (13 September 2012) 'Clarify the limits of climate models|', in Nature, Correspondence, Vol. 489.

[87] Du, H. and Smith, L.A. (2012) 'Parameter estimation through ignorance|', Physical Review E 86, 016213.

[86] Rowlands, D.J., Frame, D.J., Ackerley, D., Aina, T., Booth, B.B.B., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Forest, C.E., Grandey, B.S.,  Gryspeerdt, E., Highwood, E.J.,  Ingram, W.J., Knight, S., Lopez, A., Massey, N., McNamara, F., Meinshausen, N., Piani, C., Rosier, S.M., Sanderson, B.M., Smith, L.A., Stone, D.A., Thurston, M., Yamazaki, K., Yamazaki, Y.H. and Allen, M.R. (2012) 'Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble|.' Nature Geoscience, Issue 5: 256-260.

[85] Bevan, K., Buytaert, W. and Smith, L.A. (2012) 'On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable)|', Hydrol. Process., 26: 1905–1908.

[84] Smith, L.A. and Stern, N. (2011) 'Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy|', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 369, 1-24.

[83] Khare, S. and Smith, L.A. (2011) 'Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states|', Monthly Weather Review , 139 (7), 2080-2097.

[82] Ghil, M, Read, P. and Smith, L.A. (2010) 'Geophysical flows as dynamical systems: the influence of Hide's experiments|,' Astronomy & Geophysics, 51: 4.28-4.35.

[81] Oreskes, N., Stainforth, D.A., and Smith, L.A. (2010) 'Adaptation to Global Warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know?|', Philosophy of Science, 77 (5) (December 2010): 1012-1028.

[80] Smith, L.A., Cuéllar, M.C., Du, H. and Judd, K. (2010) 'Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models|', Physics Letters A, 374, 2618-2623.

[79] Hagedorn, R. and Smith, L.A. (2009) 'Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette|,' Meteorological Applications 16 (2): 143-155. Abstract|.

[78] Judd, K., Reynolds, C.A., Smith, L.A. and Rosmond, T.E. (2008) 'The geometry of model error (DRAFT)|', Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 65 (6): 1749-1772. Abstract|.

[77] Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2008) 'From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions|,' Tellus A, 60 (4): 663. Abstract|.

[76] Judd, K., Smith, L.A. and Weisheimer, A. (2007) 'How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation|', Q. J. Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626): 1309-1325.

[75] Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Tredger, E.R. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions|', Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161. Abstract|

[74] Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper|', Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2): 382-388. Abstract|.

[73] Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) 'Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams (Draft copy)|', Weather and Forecasting, 22 (3): 651-661. Abstract|.

[72] Smith, L.A. (2006) 'Predictability past predictability present', in Palmer, T. and Hagedorn, R. (ed.) Predictability of Weather and Climate,  Chapter 9, Cambridge, UK. Cambridge University Press.

[71] Guerrero, A. and Smith, L.A. (2005) 'A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence|', Phys. Lett. A, 355 (2-4): 619-632. SCI 1. Abstract|.

[70] Roulston, M.S., Ellepola, J. and Smith, L.A. (2005) 'Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models|', Ocean Engineering, 32 (14-15): 1841-1863. Abstract|.

[69] Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L.A., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J., Webb, M.J. and Allen, M.R. (2005) 'Uncertainty in the predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases|', Nature 433 (7024): 403-406. Abstract|.

[68] Weisheimer, A., Smith, L.A. and Judd, K. (2005) 'A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts|', Tellus, 57 (3) 265-279 MAY. Abstract|.

[67] Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data|', Trans IChemE, Part A, Feb 2004, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82 (A), 1-10. Abstract|.

[66] Judd, K. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario|', Physica D, 196: 224-242. Abstract|.

[65] Altalo, M.G. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk|', Environmental Finance October 2004, 20: 8-9. Abstract|.

[64] Kwasniok, F. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams|', Phys. Rev. Lett., 92 (16). Abstract|.

[63] McSharry, P.E. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy|', Physica D, 192: 1-22. Abstract|.

[62] Smith, L.A. and Hansen, J.A. (2004) 'Extending the limits of forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree|', Mon. Weather Rev., 132 (6): 1522-1528. Abstract|.

[61] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios|', Weather and Forecasting 19 (2): 391-397. Abstract|.

[60] Judd, K., Smith, L.A. and Weisheimer, A. (2004) 'Gradient free descent: shadowing and state estimation using limited derivative information|', Physica D, 190 (3-4): 153-166. Abstract|.

[59] Orrell, D. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram|', Int. J. Bif Chaos, 13 (10): 3015-3027. Abstract|.

[58] Guerrero, A. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Towards coherent estimation of the correlation dimension|', Phys. Lett. A, 318 373-379. Abstract|.

[57] McSharry, P.E., Smith, L.A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) 'Prediction of epileptic seizures: Are non- linear methods relevant?|', Nature Medicine, 9 (3): 241-242.

[56] Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Predictability past predictability present|', In 2002 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 219-242. ECMWF, Reading, UK.

[55] McSharry, P.E., Smith, L.A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) 'Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method|', IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (5): 628-633. Abstract|.

[54] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles|', Tellus 55 A, 16-30. Abstract|.

[53] McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals|', IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (3): 289-294. Abstract|.

[52] Roulston, M.S., Kaplan, D.T., Hardenberg, J. and Smith, L.A. (2003) 'Using medium range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production|', Renewable Energy, 29 (4) April 585-602. Abstract|.

[51] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2002) 'Weather and Seasonal Forecasting|', in Dischel, R.S. (ed.) Climate Risk and the Weather Market, 115-126, Risk Books, London.

[50] McSharry, P.E., Clifford, G., Tarassenko, L. and Smith, L.A. (2002) 'A Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours|', Computers in Cardiology, 29: 225-228. Abstract|.

[49] McSharry, P.E., He, T., Smith, L.A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) 'Linear and nonlinear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electroencephalogram recordings|', Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4): 447-461. Abstract|.

[48] von Hardenberg, J., Kono, T., Kenning, D.B.R., McSharry, P.E. and Smith, L.A. (2004) 'Identification of nucleation site interactions|', in International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2), 298-304. Abstract|.

[47] Roulston, M.S. and Smith, L.A. (2002) 'Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory|', Monthly Weather Review, 130 6: 1653-1660. Abstract|.

[46] Smith, L.A. (2002) 'What might we learn from climate forecasts?|', Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA, 4 (99): 2487-2492. Abstract|.

[45] Orrell, D., Smith, L.A., Palmer, T. and Barkmeijer, J. (2001) 'Model error in weather forecasting|', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 8: 357-371. Abstract|.

[44] Hansen, J.A. and Smith, L.A. (2001) 'Probabilistic noise reduction|,' Tellus, 53 A (5): 585-598. Abstract|.

[43] Gilmour, I., Smith, L.A. and  Buizza, R. (2001) 'Linear regime duration: Is 24 Hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting?|', J. Atmos. Sci. 58 (22): 3525-3539. Abstract|.

[42] Judd, K. and Smith, L.A. (2001) 'Indistinguishable States I: the perfect model scenario|', Physica D, 151: 125-141. Abstract|.

[41] McSharry, P.E., Ellepola, J.H., von Hardenberg, J., Smith, L.A., Kenning, D.B.R. and Judd, K. (2002) 'Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions (NEFs)|', Int. J. Heat & Mass Transfer, 45 (2): 237-253. Abstract|.

[40] Smith, L.A. (2000) 'Disentangling uncertainty and error: on the predictability of nonlinear systems|', in Mees, A.I. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, Boston: Birkhauser, 31-64. Abstract|.

[39] Hansen, J.A. and Smith, L.A. (2000) 'The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations|',  J. Atmos. Sci., 57 (17): 2859-2871. Abstract|.

[38] Smith, L.A. (2000) 'Limits to predictability in 2000 and 2100|', in Haykin, S. (ed.) Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, (IEEE, Piscataway), 129-134. (Figure 1)|. Abstract|.

[37] Ziehmann, C., Smith, L.A. and Kurths, J. (2000) 'Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability|', Phys. Lett. A, 271 (4): 237-251. Abstract|.

[36] McSharry, P. and Smith, L.A. (1999) 'Better nonlinear models from noisy data: attractors with maximum likelihood|', Phys. Rev. Lett., 83 (21): 4285-4288. Abstract|.

[35] Smith, L.A., Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. (1999) 'Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems|', Quart. J. Royal Meteorological Soc., 125: 2855-2886.  Abstract|.

[34] Ziehmann, C., Smith, L.A. and Kurths, J. (1999) 'The Bootstrap and Lyapunov Exponents in Deterministic Chaos|', Physica D, 126 (1-2): 49-59. Abstract|.

[33] McSharry, P. and Smith, L.A. (1998) 'Just Do It. Reductionism, modelling and black-box forecasting|', in Suykens, J.A.K. and Vandewalle, J. (ed.) International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications with Time-Series Prediction Competition, 106-111, Leuven, K.U. Belgium, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Abstract|.

[32] Smith, L.A. and Gilmour, I. (1998) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. In the Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 1997. ECMWF, Reading, UK.

[31] Smith, L.A. (1997) 'The maintenance of uncertainty|,' in Proc International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course CXXXIII, 177-246, Societ'a Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy.

[30] Allen, M.R. and Smith, L.A. (1997) 'Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis|', Phys. Lett. A, 234 (6): 419-428. Abstract|.

[29] Gilmour, I. and Smith, L.A. (1997) 'Enlightenment in shadows', in Kadtke, J.B. and Bulsara, A., (ed.) Applied nonlinear dynamics and stochastic systems near the millennium, 335-340., AIP, New York. Abstract|.

[28] Paparella, F., Provenzale, A., Smith, L.A., Taricco, C. and Vio, R. (1997) 'Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes', Phys. Lett. A, 235 (3): 233-240. Abstract|.

[27] Allen, M.R. and Smith, L.A. (1996) 'Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of coloured noise', J. of Climate 9 (12): 3373-3404. Part 3.

[26] Smith, L.A. (1995) 'Accountability and error in ensemble forecasting|', In 1995 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. Vol. 1, 351-368. ECMWF, Reading. Abstract|.

[25] Theiler, J. and Smith, L.A. (1995) 'Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates|', Physical Review E, 51 (4): 3738-3741. Part B. Abstract|.

[24] Smith, L.A. (1995) 'Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic', in Tong, H. (ed.) Chaos and Forecasting, 87-108.  World Scientific, London. (Note this is an extended version of [23] below).

[23] Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition,' Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. A, 348 (1688): 371-381. 

[22] Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Visualising predictability with chaotic ensembles', in Luk, F.T. (ed.) Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures and Implementations, SPIE Vol. 2296: 293-304. Bellingham, WA.

[21] Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C. Fraedrich, K. and Smith, L.A. (1994) Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeits-experiment im Lorenz-Modell. Meteorologische Zeitschrift N.F., 14.

[20] Allen, M.R. and Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability|,' Geophys. Res. Lett., 21 (10): 883-886. 

[19] Smith, L.A. (1994) 'Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamical systems analysis|', in Beven, K., Chatwin, P.C. and Millbank, J.H. (ed.) Mixing Transport and the Environment, 383-399, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London.

[18] Smith, L.A. (1993) 'Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply chaos?', in Weigend, A. and Gersenfeld, N. (ed.) Predicting the Future and Understanding the Past, 323-344,  SFI Series in Complexity XV, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.

[17] Smith, L.A. (1992) 'Identification and prediction of low-dimensional dynamics|', Physica D, 58 (1-4): 50-76.

[16] Allen, M.R. Read, P.L. and Smith, L.A. (1992) 'Temperature time-series?|', Nature, 355 (6362): 686. 

[15] Provenzale, A., Smith, L.A., Vio, R. and Murante, G. (1992) 'Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series', Physica D, 58 (1-4): 31-49.

[14] Smith, L.A. (1991) 'Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems|', in Atmanspacher, H. et al (ed.) Information Dynamics , 97-102, NATO ASI Series B, Vol. 256, Plenum Press, New York. Abstract|.

[13] Smith, L.A., Godfrey, K., Fox, P. and Warwick, K. (1991) 'A new technique for fault detection in multi-sensor probes|', in Control 91, IEE Publication 332, 1: 1062-1067.

[12] Thieberger, R., Spiegel, E.A. and Smith, L.A. (1990) 'The dimensions of cosmic fractals|', in Krasner, S. (ed.) The Ubiquity of Chaos, 197-217. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington DC. 

[11] Smith, L.A. (1989) 'Quantifying chaos through predictive flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits|', in Abraham, N. and Albino, A. (ed.) Quantitative Measures of Complexity, 359-366, NATO ASI Series B, Vol. 208, Plenum Press, New York. 

[10] Smith, L.A. (1988) 'Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations|', Phys. Lett. A, 133 (6): 283-288. 

[9] Smith, L.A. (1987) Lacunarity and Chaos in Nature, PhD Thesis, 263, Columbia University in the City of New York.

[8] Smith, L.A. and Spiegel, E.A. (1987) 'Strange accumulators, in chaos in astrophysics|', Annals of the New York Academy of Science, 497: 61-65. 

[7] Smith, L.A., Fournier, J.D. and Spiegel, E.A. (1986) 'Lacunarity and intermittency in fluid turbulence|', Phys. Lett. 114, A (8-9): 465-468.

[6] Smith, L.A. and Spiegel, E.A. (1985) 'Pattern formation by particles settling in viscous flows|', Lect. Notes in Phys., 230: 306-318.

[5] Smith, L.A. (1984) 'Particulate dispersal in a time dependent flow', in Mellor, F.K. (ed.) Dynamic Differentiation,  Woods Hole Institute Technical Report WHOI-84-44, Woods Hole, MA.

[4] Green, A.E.S., Cross, K. and Smith, L.A. (1980) 'Improved characterization of ultraviolet skylight', Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31 (1): 59-65. 

Correspondence and Comments

[3] Smith, L.A. (1995) A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - Comments Scan. J. Stat., 22 (4): 435-437.

[2] Allen, M.R., Read, P.L. and Smith, L.A. (1992) Temperature Oscillations. Nature, 359 (6397): 679.

[1] Smith, L.A. (1992) Comments on the paper of R. Smith, Estimating Dimension in Noisy Chaotic Time Series, J.R. Statist. Soc, 54 B (2): 329-352.

Encyclopaedia Entries,Technical Reports and Working Papers

Smith, L.A. (2002) 'Predictability and Chaos|', in Holton, J., Pyle, J. and Curry, J. (ed.)Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, 1777-1785. Academic Press.

Roulston, M.S., Ziehmann, C. and Smith, L.A . (2001) A Forecast Reliability Index from Ensembles: A Comparison of Methods|. Technical Report Prepared for Deutscher Wetterdienst.

Smith, L.A., Roulston, M. and von Hardenburg, J. (2001) End to End Ensemble Forecasting: Towards Evaluating The Economic Value of an Ensemble Prediction System|, Technical Memorandum 336 29, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, UK.

Books

A Very Short Introduction to Chaos|. Oxford University Press (2007). A contribution to the OUP "A Very Short Introduction" series, focused on chaos and prediction.

Book Reviews and Media Correspondence

'Feeding Frenzy is short of juice' in the Times Higher Education Supplement, 18 Aug 2000. A review of The Predictors by Bass, Thomas A. 

'Rough Survey of how ticks all add up' in the Times Higher Education Supplement textbook guide, 26 May 2000. A review of Econophysics by Mantegna, R. and Stanley, H.E. 

'Unproven theories have value|', The Times, Letters to the Editor, 30 November 2007.

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