'Understanding Uncertainty in Environmental Modelling' Workshop
CATS ran a NERC-funded training workshop, 8-10 January 2014, aimed at research students and early career researchers.
Climate Science and Response Strategies Group
The Climate Change Decision Theory Group (CCDTG), has now be superseded by the 'Climate Science and Response Strategies Group' which will meet every third Thursday of the month.
Details of upcoming meetings Contact: Alessandro Tavoni
'Roasts' are informal seminars hosted by CATS for the purpose of reporting on work in progress. They usually involve a lively discussion of the current research topic of the 'roastee', which takes place at the whiteboard over lunchtime within CATS.
Upcoming and recent roasts:
5 December 2013 - Peter Irvine, Research Fellow at IASS in Potsdam, working on geoengineering, including the geoMIP and climate model studies, on 'The Limits of Climate Control.'
6 November 2013 - Nick Watkins, Senior Visiting Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, on 'Bunched black swans: how Mandelbrot's models for heavy tails and long range dependence remain relevant today.'
15 October 2013 - Gab Abramowitz, UNSW, on (a) ensemble interpretation paradigms and definitions of model dependence with them, and (b) an example from the land surface modelling community of how an under-constrained modelling environment and the pressure for more process inclusion into models has led to some deleterious results.
23 September 2013 - Michael Denhard, Deutsche Wetterdienst, on 'Tricking decision makers with probabilities.'
Date TBC - Professor Henry Wynn, LSE (Chair of CATS), will give an introduction to statistics for experimental design.
12 June 2013 - Dr Ole Peters, London Mathematical Laboratory and Santa Fe Institute, on ‘Time averages, ergodicity and utility theory’. Abstract
1 November 2012 - Lewis Mitchell, University of Vermont, on 'Data assimilation in slow-fast systems using homogenised climate models'.
27 September 2012 - Erik Min, KNMI Netherlands, on 'Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in North-Western Europe in regional climate models'.
17 February 2012 - Dr Reason Machete, University of Reading, on 'Calibrating a wrong model'.
20 January 2012 - Dr Erica Thompson, Imperial College London, on 'Statistical and dynamical models of North Atlantic storms'.
19 October 2011 - Dr Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, on 'Climate uncertainty: From what to when'.
March 2013 - At the European Adaptation to Climate Change Conference (ECCA), Hamburg, Dr Swenja Surminski led a panel on 'Perspectives on Loss and Damage'. This research was funded as part of the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and Munich Re. Synthesis Report
February 2013 - As a member of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) Professor Leonard Smith was a member of a Climate Science Working Group that took part in the 2013 Climate Science Day on Capitol Hill, 26-27 February 2013. The purpose of the visits is to provide a non-partisan opportunity for scientists of many disciplines to build relationships and provide Members of Congress access to the best possible climate science information.
November 2012 - As part of the LSE Munich Re programme, CATS and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) hosted a symposium on Insurance in Emerging Markets: Determinants of Growth and the Case of Climate Change. The symposium brought together a small group of leading academics and practitioners to discuss the different determinants of insurance growth. The aim was to have an open exchange on latest findings, considering evidence from emerging markets and developed markets, as well as comparing tools and methods for evaluation.
May 2012 - CATS and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) hosted an academic symposium on Hurricane Forecasting: Skill and Value, with a focus on questions relating to the construction, evaluation and use of hurricane forecasts on seasonal scales.The aim of the symposium was to present the findings from the LSE’s work in this area, as part of the Munich Re programme, to stakeholders and other users.
Participants from the climate research and forecast user communities included representatives from the UK Met Office, UCL, Imperial College, KNMI, the Bermuda Institute of Biological Sciences, the William J Clinton Foundation, Christian Aid, as well as members of the Munich Re programme at LSE and Munich Re itself.
Various aspects of the end-to-end process of forecast production and implementation - such as lead time, forecast targets, and good practice in forecast verification - were covered in detail. The principle focus was on the skill and value of Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts, but other areas of extreme weather risk, such as floods, landslides, and drought, were also presented and discussed.
LSE research in this area continues to be shaped by the requirements of forecast users and the knowledge and capabilities of forecast providers. Participants were invited to share knowledge to assist LSE in their understanding of the needs of decision-makers when communicating uncertainty, and distinguishing between forecast skill and value.
May 2012 - CATS hosted a reception and book launch of Professor Arthur Petersen's Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice (2nd Edition), LSE, 23 May 2012. Professor Petersen is a Munich Re Programme Visiting Professor (CCCEP-CATS).
May 2012 - CATS held a two-day workshop on 'Uncertainty Quantification, Risk and Decision', LSE, 22-23 May 2012. Speakers included Nick Watkins (BAS), Jochen Broecker (Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems), Jim Baker (William J. Clinton Foundation), Ron Bates (Rolls Royce), Jordan Ko (DAE programme, Isaac Newton Institute), Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné (HEC Montreal), Massimo Marinacci (Bocconi University) and Henry Wynn (LSE).
February 2012 - As part of his membership of the ASA's Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP), Leonard Smith took part in a non-partisan opportunity for scientists of many disciplines to inform Members of Congress on the view of climate science held by the sponsoring professional science societies and science organizations. The purpose of the visits is to provide Members of Congress the best possible access to scientific information on climate science when making policy decisions. Read more here.
November 2011 - The CATS/GRI exhibit 'Confidence from Uncertainty: Interpreting Climate Predictions' ran as part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science, LSE, 4 November 2011.
October 2011 - CATS/Munich Re Programme Visiting Professor Arthur Petersen was on the organizing committee of a workshop entitled "Error in the Sciences: Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Rectifying Measures", The Lorentz Centre in Leiden, Netherlands, 24-28 October 2011. The aim of the workshop was to explore various practices of dealing with error to attain reliability, to gain a deeper understanding of what error in science and its treatment entails.
July 2011 - David Stainforth led the preparation of an exhibit at the Royal Society Summer Science exhibition, 5-10 July 2011. The exhibit was entitled 'Confidence from Uncertainty: Interpreting Climate Predictions'.
June 2011 - Ralph Rayner organised the workshop 'Sweet Sea Observations: How Great Lakes Observations Can Work for You', Edison Boat Club, Detroit, USA, 21 June 2011.
2010 - CATS celebrated its 10th anniversary and held an event on 29 October 2010 to mark the occasion. An afternoon of talks covered a broad range of CATS work - for information click here.